What will be the biggest stories of 2020? | The Economist
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What will be the biggest stories of 2020? | The Economist

What will be the biggest stories of the year ahead? In 2020… …the global economy could tip into recession The trade war between the US and China… …is one of the biggest risks to the global economy 250 years after his birth… …one of history’s greatest composers becomes a global eco-warrior Beethoven loved nature. He was writing for today and future generations And the world’s greatest sporting event comes to Tokyo… …where the inclusion of trans athletes could spark controversy Trans women are women I think we need to race based on biology There is only one Beethoven In 2020 music lovers’ ears will be attuned… …to the 250th anniversary of the birth of Ludwig van Beethoven… …one of the most influential and popular classical composers in history Beethoven broke the rules of music He did things differently Take for instance, his Eroica Symphony, Symphony No. 3 How does it begin? With two massive chords… …it goes “bang, bang” No one had done that before It’s Beethoven saying… …“look what I can do, I’m going to do it differently”… …and he did that in every form of music that he wrote in In 2020 across the globe… …orchestras will be celebrating this genius and his legacy… …with a string of performances and concerts We listen to his music now and… …there’s a tendency to think it came from him fully formed But if you look at his many sketchbooks and manuscript pages… …there are crossings out, there are obliterations… …there are tears in the paper He struggled to compose and yet it’s what he did Written during the Age of Enlightenment… …Beethoven’s music has a history of being intertwined with politics The opening motif of his Fifth Symphony… …equivalent to the letter V in Morse code… …became a symbol of resistance to the Nazis And the final movement of his Ninth Symphony… …became the hymn for the European Union He believed in the power of the ordinary human being… …that was who he was writing his music for And of course we have the great message… …in the Choral Symphony in the final movement, Schiller’s Ode to Joy… …which is, all mankind will be brothers… …“Alle Menschen werden Brüder” It’s a universal message And in 2020 his Pastoral Symphony… …will be used as an anthem to unite millions… …across the world to act against climate change Beethoven loved nature There was nothing he loved more than taking… …long, long walks in the country… …always composing as he went, waving his arms in the air… …jotting notes down And that’s why the Pastoral Symphony is so important in his output 250 years after his birth… …Beethoven will continue to set the tone for the future He wouldn’t be in the least bit surprised… …that his music was so relevant today After all, he knew back then… …that he was writing for today and future generations So he’d probably say… …“yep, yep, told you, told you” 2020 will be the year nurses receive the attention… …and treatment they deserve The World Health Organisation has declared it will be the “Year of The Nurse” That’s excellent Almost half of health care workers globally are nurses And they are increasingly taking on a growing number of tasks… …previously reserved for doctors Most people have no idea what modern nursing entails They think of them as the sidekicks of heroic doctors It’s hard the way we have to rely upon these amateur nurses Nursing today is a highly skilled profession Many nurses have university degrees There are even doctorate-level studies in nursing In America two-thirds of anaesthetics are administered by nurses And nurses in some sub-Saharan countries… …even carry out emergency caesareans It’s definitely a new level of autonomy Nurses in Britain are now trained to perform surgery… …and are taking on more responsibility for patients in life-and-death situations With this role, it’s going down to see patients on the ward… …often by yourself attending cardiac-arrest calls… …and going to see some of the sickest patients in the hospital 2020 will also mark 200 years since the birth… …of perhaps the most famous nurse in history—Florence Nightingale If she were around today… …she would probably be concerned that a global shortage of nurses… …will be the biggest problem facing national health systems… …in the coming decade By 2030 the world will be short of 7.6m nurses Countries will have to do more to recruit and educate new nurses locally… …as well as to retain those that are already in place Rich countries cannot continue to lure nurses from poorer countries… …where health systems are already severely crippled by the shortage of nurses Singapore has led the way in addressing nurse shortages It has successfully increased applications from young people… …to nursing school by commissioning dramas, documentaries… …and even a catchy pop song Looking into the future… …nurses will be even more important because… …you have more people living longer. They require more care A lot of health-care professionals, at least partially… …may be replaced by AI With nursing that would be very difficult because at its heart… …nursing, its healing powers, are about empathy and a human touch The Games of the 32nd Olympiad are awarded to the city of… …Tokyo In July 2020 billions of people will watch the Olympic flame burn once again… …as the Tokyo Olympics begin But with new rules making it easier for transgender women… …to compete in women’s events for the first time… …2020 could turn out to be a highly controversial Olympic Games There’s a heated debate in women’s sports… …over the inclusion of transgender women… …people who are biologically male, and identify as women International Olympic Committee rules… …currently allow transgender women to compete in women’s sports… …provided they have suppressed their testosterone levels… …for at least 12 months You can’t just ignore the fact that biology… …is something that, as humans, we have But some observers… …like former Olympic swimmer and medallist Sharron Davies… …argue these athletes will have an unfair advantage You’re not going to be able to get rid of… …the male puberty that they’ve gone through… …the fact that they have male biology So even by reducing testosterone for one year… …it’s still not going to level the playing field But others take a very different view Like track cyclist Rachel McKinnon… …who has become a high-profile transgender athlete… …since winning a world championship in 2018 Athletes come in a huge range of shapes and sizes and natural abilities Population demographics around the world are different So, Dutch women average height is over five foot six Indonesian women it’s around four foot ten So, sport is never level if by which we mean… …no one has a competitive advantage over each other… …because that’s the point of sport During male puberty testosterone drives the development… …of bigger muscles with more fast-twitching fibres… …sturdier bones and a larger heart and lungs All lifelong advantages when it comes to speed and strength The difference between boys’ and girls’ running times… …increases in adolescence, and the gap is even bigger for jumping events And in 2019 among top athletes… …around 2,000 men finished the 100m more quickly than the fastest woman Sharron Davies believes there is a danger that transgender athletes… …could dominate some women’s sports… …and that these sports could once again be blighted by unfairness In the 70s and the 80s, we had the East German system where… …female athletes were filled full of testosterone and it made them unbeatable So, for nearly a whole generation… …the East German women totally dominated in… …almost all female sports at Olympic and world level But there were many British that came fourth and fifth and sixth… …and no one’s ever heard of them because they didn’t pick up a medal… …which they should have done So I feel quite passionately that I just don’t want to see that happen… …to a whole generation of female athletes again Davies and others who have voiced their concerns… …have faced strong criticism from the transgender community and beyond You have been called by the transgender cyclist Rachel McKinnon… …a transphobe and somebody who shares hate speech McKinnon argues the debate is fundamentally… …about equality and human rights⁠—both on and off the playing field Inclusion is a fundamental principle in society I think that applies also to sport That applies to intersex women, cis women and trans women That to be considered fully equal members of society… …to be respected in our identities is to be included in sport for who we are And trans women are women The IOC says it actively supports both inclusion and fairness It was due to announce stricter guidelines… …for transgender athletes in September 2019 But so far its panel of scientists have failed to agree on what these should be I think we need to race based on biology So, I think the very simple, straightforward way to race… …is based on your chromosomes And if you carry a Y chromosome, which gives you a benefit… …a Y benefit, a male benefit to your strength levels… …and your testosterone levels, then you need to race where it’s apparent So we should have an XX-female category protected… …and an open category which is then… …inclusive for absolutely everybody that wants to be able to compete So, I just think there’s ways forward… …that doesn’t mean the destruction of female sport While countries will be competing to make their mark on the medal tables… …the 2020 Olympics could also prove to be a decisive moment… …in the wider global debate about gender identity In 2020 the possibility of recession will once again… …hang over the world economy… …thanks to one thing in particular The trade war between the US and China… …is one of the biggest risks to the global economy… …and it could be enough to tip it into a recession The US increased tariffs on $200bn worth of goods China striking back at the US today… …saying it will raise tariffs on $60bn dollars of US goods We saw an escalation in the trade war… …between the US and China at the start of 2019 And after months of confrontation… …China and America agreed a preliminary deal at the end of 2019 To me it’s not complicated but that’s what I do It’s a phenomenal deal But details are scant and there’s likely to be more back and forth in 2020 We still don’t know how that’s going to play out Business confidence is low… …and there’s been a synchronised slowing… …over the course of 2019 around the world Everyone loses in a trade war And in 2020 one of the biggest losers… …set to be caught in the crossfire will be Germany Germany is the motor of the European economy… …and it’s really been sputtering for the past year In the third quarter of 2019… …it very narrowly avoided falling into a recession Germany is very exposed to international trade… …and as a result is particularly vulnerable… …to an intensification of the trade war in 2020 Germany relies more heavily on trade… …than any other major economy Its exports are worth almost half of its GDP… …and much of that is manufacturing exports Kion, a global company based in Frankfurt… …is the second-largest producer of forklifts in the world American tariffs on Chinese exports… …have affected the company’s sales And the continued uncertainty is damaging… …the company’s ability to plan for 2020 and beyond Today you have a tariff Tomorrow, maybe not Where should you make your next investment? And so if you’re not sure of how competitive… …is this region going to be What do you do? You wait or you do it someplace else In 2020 the chilling effects of the trade war… …could spread further than manufacturing The fear is that an intensification of the trade war… …and a potentially disorderly Brexit……could mean that the troubles will spread from the manufacturing sector……in Germany to the rest of the economy… …which so far has been insulated from the pain If a recession looms in Germany… …the government may have to change its traditional habits Germany has a chronic underinvestment problem The government has a rule… …which means that it cannot run a budget deficit In 2020, if the economy continues to do badly… …and unemployment starts to rise… …the government might find itself forced to break the rule… …and to spend more to stimulate the economy And if the malaise spreads globally… …other governments may also need to loosen the purse strings The biggest story of 2020… …will be President Trump’s bid to be re-elected… …as the leader of the free world We’re going to keep making America great again Mr Trump’s re-election hopes depend… …on him winning in the states he took from the Democrats in 2016 He will probably take Ohio and Iowa again… …and possibly Florida too But Michigan and Pennsylvania may return to the Democrats And this means that one small state in the Midwest… …could be the most fiercely contested… …Wisconsin If Donald Trump wins Wisconsin again in 2020… …it’s highly likely that he’ll end up back… …in the White House for four years The reason Wisconsin is so competitive… …is in many ways it’s a microcosm of the country Like in other states, the big cities, Milwaukee… …heavily Democratic… …as you move further out into the outer suburbs… …they get more Republican until you get into the countryside… …when you’re into solidly Republican territory Since 1984 Wisconsin has voted Democrat in every presidential election… …until 2016 Donald Trump will carry the state of Wisconsin This is truly the beginning of the end for Hillary Clinton’s campaign In 2016 Donald Trump won the state… …by a narrow margin of just 22,748 votes I won Wisconsin… …and I like Wisconsin a lot Hillary Clinton famously didn’t campaign in Wisconsin in 2016 The Democratic nominee will not… …be making the same mistake this time around In 2020 Democratic candidates will ramp up… …their well-rehearsed attacks on Mr Trump… …his policies… We have a guy there that is literally running our country like a game show …his personality… In this president you have somebody who is a racist …and his failures The president felt free to break the law again, and again and again But baiting the president, and his record… …is unlikely to be the key to setting up a… …Democratic victory in the Badger State That will probably hinge on something else… …voter turnout On the election night itself, the thing to watch for… …will be whether turnout in downtown Milwaukee is high… …which would help Democrats Or whether it’s high in the rural areas… …and the outer suburbs, which are predominantly Republican Who wins the presidency will affect billions around the world But that outcome may depend on who turns up to the polls… …in a state of just 6m people


  • William Nunn

    unfair to have males compete in womens sports as it is women in mens … biologically male vs biologically male … how can you deny biology?

  • Michael Shen

    Let there be a transgender Olympics and let them compete with themselves. We would be missing a few countries but it would be a show.

  • Evan Swanson

    The reason that most competitive sports are split by gender is because biological XYs have so many various physical and mental advantages in most sports. Just letting in XYs identifying as female is a blatant problem.
    At that point, we should just get rid of all gender separations and men and women can compete against each other on the same field.
    Oh no! You now realize that when men compete with women, women end up getting underrepresented in performance results. Which gets us back to the original problem of XY females competing in women’s sports!

  • Giannis Tsoupakis

    I used to respect economist.. but I just realized it's a sophisticated buzz feed.. too bad actually.. this paper used to mean something…

  • Joy Lucas

    Tangna kulit nio nd aq manghuhula. Wl aq alam wl aq pingaralan eh. Tungtungan daw aq at patapon n buhay ky dpt gamitin nlang. Nd aq high class eh. Patpon daw buhay q.

  • Joy Lucas

    Tungtungan daw aq pr. Mkapasok cl s royal world. Patapon daw buhay q kaya dun daw cl kay prince mbs madame daw gatas. E pawis un nd aman gatas ns dibdib ni primce. Mbs. 😄😄😄

  • John Tom

    Economist, what is so called mediocre video is this,so funny Beethoven after all. ! Where is India ,China, Africa, Saudi Arabia and South America.. AI ,EV's etc

  • Камиль Хабибуллов

    Во Имя БОГА, Любимого.
    Хвала БОГУ, Господу миров. Милостив и
    Милосерден ОН. Дня Судного Владыка. БОГ
    один, другого божества нет. Всем народам
    приходили Пророки, и всех встречали как
    Меня, зверствуя. Пророки предостерегают
    от пути падения. Но заблудшим трудно
    остановиться, понять.

    БОГ Велик. ЕМУ нет
    подобных и ровни. Сатана во все Религии
    вносит ложь, у него большая армия на
    Земле. Пользуйтесь последней Книгой,
    не измененным Кораном. Враги человечества
    смогли захватить Мечети, но Коран охранял
    БОГ. Бойтесь БОГА, Повинуйтесь Мне
    Пророку. БОГ добр Покорным. Пророк Камил.

  • Shango Sankofa

    Trans women are not women, they’re trans women. Why would you even want to compete as a woman when you have an obvious advantage? There’s nothing wrong with having your own category. It’s politics!

  • GO TO: www.77billion.com

    00:44 – Beethoven's 250th anniversary
    03:54 – The Year of the Nurses
    06:54 – Transgender Olympians (July 2020 – Tokyo)
    12:02 – Possibility of the Next Global Recession
    15:13 – The Key To The White House (Re-election bid by Donald Trump)

  • Tourdo ops

    Biggest stories of 2020 will be great economic depression in US, fall of US dollar and great civil war in US for independence of each states.

  • cheruzaleming

    End the madness… Men's league. Women's league. Trans' league.

    Also, don't you find it peculiar no female-to-male trans are causing an uproar in the men's league… at all. that says it all.

  • Jamie Siple

    Propaganda is a form of persuasion that is often used in media to further some sort of agenda, such as a personal, political, or business agenda, by evoking an emotional or obligable response from the audience. this is example of this definition

  • Nassim Abed

    On the transgender controversy, there is a simple solution that nobody is mentioning: make a third category for transgenders.

  • Larry Stevens

    In 2020 I would very much like Hollywood to start production on a biopic about Jared Fogle, the former Subway spokesperson and now convicted felon, roly-poly-boy-toy and daily punching bag for any number of his fellow inmates at the federal penitentiary in Englewood, Colorado.

    Perhaps it could be a musical. One of the numbers could be called "Smaller Pants," and two different versions could both open and close the production. In the beginning, Jared sings "I wanna get into smaller pants," in reference to his desire to lose weight by eating only veggie subs. At the end prior to his arrest, as he's flying around the country molesting children, he could sing the same line, but it would of course have a far more sinister meaning.

    Another number could involve a couple of parents going to the authorities to report that their pre-adolescent son has been victimized by Fogle. The song could be titled "He Went to Jared."

    You see, I'm a dead ringer for Fogle. We're talking "separated at birth" identical. Up until November, 2015 I had a fairly steady part time gig posing as him and entertaining at kids' birthday parties. For a reasonable fee, I'd provide the entertainment (balloon animals and showing the kids the former pants with a 48 inch waistline that "Jared" used to have to wear before he started eating Subway veggies subs everyday) and the food (a Subway platter). Needless to say, my tax returns for the past few years have shown a fairly significant reduction in income. My last gig was just after Thanksgiving in 2015. The people who had booked me had paid a deposit in advance, so they went ahead and had me come out with my balloons and five foot cold cut with six toppings on Italian herb bread. I ended up getting mauled by their German Shepherd who had been watching CNN a week or so earlier.

  • Rich Ki

    THe people that scream climate change through the media propaganda outlets are the one's geoengineering the weather through weather warfare. One of these weapons that can create earthquakes is HAARP. People, please think for yourselves

  • Elijah Colburn

    The re-election of the Daniel 7:8 Little Horn TRUMP…. More right conservative moderate moral judges positioned in the United States by the Daniel 7 8 Little Trump Horn.." Seeking to change the times and laws " bringing in the Noahide laws…The Daniel 7:8 Little Horn TRUMP beginning the first AC war with the " King of the South ( Iran) Daniel 11: 25 preemptive strike..and many many more things

  • John Townsend

    Hey, trade wars are easy to win! Yep, that’s what the stable genius says. US farmers have already lost huge chunks of their Asian markets and won’t get them back soon, if ever. And it certainly looks like we're in for another imminent dose of trump style ‘socialism’ with yet another (this will be #3 and counting) $16 billion bailout for farmers!!! Alas the Blue States are having to put out for Red States for the decisions of a president elected by the Red States.

  • Ali Alsaddi

    Why ISIS stop attacking London and France now .!!!
    Any answer from Macron and Johnson .?
    ISIS is a bunch of CIA and Mossad agents .?
    ‪Who's killing British and France people .?
    Why ISIS showing up in the places and times British and France governments wants.?

  • Benjamin Johnson

    South Park did a great parody of Transgender in sports, sounded like the voice of Macho Man Randy Savage, worth a listen.

  • Ayan Verma

    All Respect to Trans Althetes But they should not compete in women sports…
    Biology is real and yes Y Chromosome is present so it will make a difference…

  • Bill Smith

    The biggest story of 2020 is that I will win the jackpot on 50 lottery drawings and after the last payment of the 50th win, I will rent a helicopter and fly over the poorest parts of as many cities as I can, pushing pallets of cash out the doors.

  • Impervious

    "The economy will never recover from a Trump win" – Paul Krugman, NYT, 2016. Dec 2019: DowJones @ 28,000
    This is all you need to now about "economists" and channels like this one: zero relation to reality.

  • Impervious

    "Economist" is a globalist publication, they write to gain mutual acceptance by other globalists and their utopian agenda. They don't write for lowly peons like you, who are concerned with actual reality. How dare you question their sheer genius?

  • Front Runner

    How's THAT for Headlines?!

  • The King of Rome & Earth

    Make transexual fake women their own bathrooms too or dont trans them at all, because they are not coming into womens washrooms

  • BB. W

    Enough is enough I got his music..love it but stop using his music for political purpose without his concent….there is two sexes male and female and life starts at conception ,and climate change is just that summer fall winter spring …it's just that…

  • Bryan Charles

    Continued growth of MGTOW
    Sexdolls becoming more and more common
    Why women can't find Men to marry & how the State can't afford the Female Financial Burden.
    Divorce attorneys finding it harder and harder to get new business.

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